Insights from Hubbert's carbon pulse curve

We all know fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—are non-renewable. Yet, our modern lifestyles often blind us to the finite nature of these resources and the breakneck speed at which we're burning through them. Hubbert's Curve, shown above, offers a stark reminder of our fossil fuel consumption rate when viewed against the backdrop of geological time.  

M. King Hubbert, an American geologist who worked in oil exploration and research division for Shell, is best known for his detailed estimations of global oil reserves. In his 1956 paper, "Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels," he presented this very graph. His core message was clear: our oil consumption demand will inevitably peak. Therefore, we must prioritize allocating remaining fossil fuels to develop nuclear energy, ensuring a secure, dense, and low-carbon energy supply for the long haul, well before fossil fuel extraction becomes economically unfeasible. The graph underscores the unavoidable trajectory of fossil fuel consumption, while highlighting the conditional nature of nuclear energy's development.  

More recently, Nate Hagens, in his "Great Simplification" podcast, has aptly characterized Hubbert's Curve as a "carbon pulse." This term captures the essence of how, over the relatively short span of human history, we've experienced a concentrated surge of energy from fossil fuels. This pulse has profoundly shaped our civilization, bringing about immense material progress through industrialization, while simultaneously creating unintended consequences like climate change and pollution. If we consider this carbon pulse an anomaly within the broader context of our species' existence, then the effects of climate change, though unprecedented in our recent experience, become more understandable as a symptom of this rapid energy injection.  

Hubbert's curve is primarily used as an indicator of oil resource availability and not to quantify ecosystem damage from climate change. Despite of this Hubbert's Curve holds a wealth of information, and carefully unpacking its insights is crucial. Doing so will guide us toward making wiser decisions about fossil fuel prioritization, allocation, and consumption, ultimately safeguarding the well-being of future generations.

Why does the curve peak

As we extract more and more of any non-renewable energy source like fossil fuels, we're forced to venture farther offshore, drill deeper underground, and generally work much harder to extract the same amount of oil. We move away from the "sweet spots" of oil formations, resorting to energy-intensive techniques like fracking and horizontal drilling. Eventually, this becomes uneconomical. The rate of fossil fuel consumption inevitably declines, creating the peak we see in Hubbert's Curve. Crucially, this means that the demand for oil peaks before the actual reserves are exhausted. It is good to remember that in the real world the bell curve for the oil demand would have jagged edges, but the implications remain the same.

Our current position on the curve

As the graph shows, we're still on the ascent of Hubbert's Curve, leading to ongoing debate among scientists about precisely when we'll reach peak consumption. This uncertainty stems from varying estimates of remaining reserves and differing projections of future consumption. A recent, credible estimate suggests global crude oil production demand will peak around 2040. It is worth noting that conventional oil demand has already peaked in 2019, and we are now pushing extraction rates in shale oil, natural gas liquids etc.

The focus on peak oil demand is critical. We want to moderate our ascent and ensure the development of renewable energy sources—nuclear, wind, solar, battery storage, and others—before we hit peak demand. This will ensure the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy deployment. The descent phase can then be dedicated to maintenance and building a circular economy. Slowing our ascent can be achieved in two ways: by increasing the supply of renewable energy to displace fossil fuels, and by simultaneously decreasing our overall energy consumption rate. We'll delve into both of these approaches in the next two sections.

Expanding renewable capacity

The rapid deployment of renewables like wind and solar, coupled with China's prominent nuclear energy scaling, has definitely increased non-fossil fuel energy generation. While nuclear energy holds immense promise, its high costs and relatively long construction timelines pose significant challenges to scaling fission, and nuclear fusion still requires major breakthroughs. The next two decades are crucial for achieving these breakthroughs as we approach the peak of Hubbert's Curve. If commercial fusion is achieved a constant mini sun-like energy source is available to us, which explains the likely plateauing of the nuclear on the Hubbert's curve.

The current enthusiasm surrounding wind and solar expansion masks a crucial fact: renewables are currently supplementing the global energy mix, not substituting for fossil fuels. This continued reliance on fossil fuels underscores our challenge in slowing our ascent on the Hubbert's Curve. It's also vital to recognize that decarbonization through renewables and energy storage will necessitate "re-materialization"—the extraction of metals, rare earth elements, and critical minerals required for this transition. And, ironically, fossil fuels are often needed for this very re-materialization. Therefore, slowing our ascent on the curve requires not just supply-side solutions, but also significant demand-side cooperation.

Responsible energy consumption

Currently, the West disproportionately focuses on the supply side of energy, neglecting the crucial demand side. Politically, addressing energy demand is unpopular, and materially, it's inconvenient, as reducing per capita energy consumption necessitates lifestyle changes. Yet, demand-side energy regulation is more important than supply-side generation, a point frequently overlooked.  

A significant portion of fossil fuels is currently misused in conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars) or abused by the ultra-rich to fuel their extravagant lifestyles. The "drill, baby, drill" energy policy, championed by the Trump administration, demonstrates a blatant disregard for Hubbert's Curve. Farfetched endeavors, like Mars exploration, with their considerable energy footprint, become questionable when viewed through this lens, despite being framed as preparing for a low-probability asteroid collision. Similarly, the current obsession with AI development raises concerns, given the immense energy demands of data centers.  

Encouragingly, the post-growth movement is slowly gaining traction, offering hope for demand-side solutions. One of the tenets of this movement is capping the wealth of the ultra-rich, as wealth and energy consumption are positively and exponentially correlated. This measure, while seemingly unrealistic today, is crucial for slowing our ascent on the energy curve and also enabling wealth redistribution for a more egalitarian world.

The West often deflects blame for climate change onto developing nations, urging them to reduce their populations and, consequently, their total emissions. While both per capita energy consumption and population growth contribute to climate change, per capita consumption is the stronger driver. A 2020 research paper, using energy modeling, demonstrated that with advancements in energy technologies and a global reduction in energy demand to sufficiency levels (and assuming no energy inequality), 10 billion people could be comfortably supported in 2050. This study reinforces the untapped potential of demand side regulation and confirms that reducing per capita energy consumption can support a larger population, echoing Gandhi's famous words: "Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's needs, but not every man's greed." At the same time, the pretext of larger population being supported under energy sufficiency levels of consumption is not be misconstrued for increasing population!

Ultimately, demand-side energy regulation must be implemented, either voluntarily by individuals or through government incentive mechanisms, to respect and align with the geological reality of Hubbert's Curve.

PS:

#1 Stuart Mcmillen's comic on peak oil is a very good resource to further explore on this topic.

#2 I used Gemini to augment my original write up with tonal changes.

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Content writing for Anabe Labs by Rajesh Hegde is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0